Notifications Bell

The Week ahead Update: Key Market data and US Dollar Price Forecast

The Week ahead Update: Key Market data and US Dollar Price Forecast

Investors await this week's important data releases from the US, UK, Europe, alongside speeches from monetary policymakers.

Key Events for The Coming week

On Monday, October 5, markets await the Eurozone and the UK’s final composite PMI numbers for September, the Eurozone retail sales numbers of August, the US non-manufacturing ISM figures of September, and Fed members Evans and Bostic speeches.

On Tuesday, October 6, investors will follow the RBA interest rate decision, the ECB president Lagarde’s speeches, the US balance of trade with the Fed chair Powell speech.

On Wednesday, October 7, markets will tune in the ECB president Lagarde’s speech, Fed members Barkin, Williams, and Kashkari’s speeches and will find out about the change in the US oil inventories and the latest Fed’s meeting discussions from the Fed minutes.

On Thursday, October 8, eyes will be on Switzerland’s unemployment rate, the BoE FPC statement, the ECB Monetary policy meeting accounts, and the US initial jobless claims.

On Friday, October 9, traders will know about the Chinese final composite PMI numbers, the UK GDP Q3, Canadian unemployment numbers, and the US wholesale inventories read of August.

Looking for a regulated company? Open now a trading account with

US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart ( May 29 – October 4, 2020 )

Chart Source: Webtrader,

On September 21, the Dollar index traded above the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern and closed above the 50-day moving average eyeing a test of 95.24. However, the price reversed last week to the lower 94.04- 91.78 trading zone reflecting a weaker bullish sentiment.

A daily close above the high end of the zone ie, above 94.04 could send the price towards the monthly resistance level at 95.24 (August 2016 low).

On the other hand, a daily close below the 50-day moving average signals even weaker bullish momentum and could send the price towards the low end of the current trading zone at 91.78.

US Dollar Index Four Hour Price Chart ( September 21- October 4, 2020 )

Chart Source: Webtrader,

On September 30, the US dollar index broke below the higher line on the bullish trendlines fan and started a downward trend creating lower highs with lower lows. Currently, the price eyes a test of the lower line on the same fan.

To conclude, while the bullish bais still intact a break below the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern could start a sideways move pointing the price towards the low end of the current trading zone discussed above on the daily chart at 91.78. Hence, a break below 93.54 could send the market towards 92.73, while a break above 94.32 may cause a rally towards 95.24.

This information/research prepared by Mahmoud Alkudsi does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views and consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The research provided does not constitute the views of JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

As of the date the report is published, the research analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the research analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).

The research analyst in not employed by JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest. The laws of the Republic of South Africa shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.

JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd trading as ZA.CAPEX.COM acts as intermediary between the investor and Magnasale Trading Ltd, the counterparty to the contract for difference purchased by the Investor via ZA.CAPEX.COM, authorised & regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with license number 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd is the principal to the CFD purchased by investors