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Gold Analysis and Price Forecast for today, 2022 and beyond: Will it rise to new highs?

Gold Analysis and Price Forecast for today, 2022 and beyond: Will it rise to new highs?

How do analysts see the Gold Price moving in the coming days and years? We look at some of the latest Gold analysis and price forecast for 2022 and beyond.

The price of gold has declined from $1900 per troy ounce (t oz) to hit $1860 at the time of this writing (May 2, 2022).

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What moves the price of gold

Unlike almost any other asset, gold is typically neither a safety nor a risk asset, though the popular financial media have often called it both over the years (depending on how gold has been performing in recent months). Instead, it’s a currency hedge for which demand rises when there are concerns about inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies (particularly those most widely held, like the USD and EUR). In other words:

  1. In times of optimism (aka risk appetite), gold can either appreciate if markets believe growth will lead to inflation, or it can fall if the desire for higher yields overrides inflation concerns and investors move into more classic risk assets which they believe will provide better returns.
  2. In times of pessimism (aka risk aversion) gold can either rise if markets believe that stalling growth will lead to rising deficits and/or money printing that could cause inflation, or it can also fall on fears of deflation or a market crash that feeds demand for cash. In times of panic, traders seek cash either to cover margin calls or other obligations or to be ready to go bargain hunting.

    If pessimism turns to panic, then gold could either:
    – rise if markets are more concerned about the USD or EUR losing their purchasing power than about near-term liquidity needs, as was the case at times from 2009 through 2011.
    – fall if markets are more concerned about liquidity than the loss of purchasing power, as was the case in late 2011.

When markets are not concerned about fading purchasing power, the major currencies tend to gain against gold. That can happen due to:

  • Low inflation expectations, as we saw starting in late 2011. Concerns about the global economy kept inflation fears low, and so gold began a multi-month downtrend.
  • Panic periods are when markets fear a financial crisis, and liquidity becomes the top priority. We saw gold sell-off during times of peak anxiety about the US or EU. During these periods, investors tend to sell gold to raise cash.

>> Learn how to invest in Gold

How do analysts see the price of Gold moving in the coming months? Below, we look at some of the latest projections.

Gold Price Prediction for 2022: What Do Experts Predict?

Gold price prediction

Goldman Sachs

Recently investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its 2022 gold target to $2,500 per ounce, citing a "perfect storm" of increased investor and central bank demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as resilient Asian retail demand.

Scotiabank

Canada’s Scotiabank forecast that the gold price could average $1,850 per t oz in 2022 and drop to $1,700 in 2023.

ANZ

In their latest note, ANZ’s analysts were bearish on their long-term gold price outlook. They predicted that the price could slide to $1,750 by the end of June and $1,600 per ounce by the end of December, averaging $1,725 for the year. They forecast that the price could decline further to $1,400 by the end of September 2023 and average $1,458 next year. 

ABN Amro

Analysts at Dutch bank ABN Amro were more bearish in their gold price prediction for 2022, expecting the price to average $1,500 and then fall further to $1,300 in 2023.

UBS

UBS recognizes the resilience of gold, which is largely due to an elevated demand for portfolio hedges, as well as the Fed's insufficient response toward inflation. However, regardless of gold's resilience, UBS does still expect gold to fall to $1,650-1,700/oz from July to December 2022, as a result of  the ease of threats of the omicron variant, and reduced inflation.

Bank of America

According to Bank of America experts, growing inflation, continuing pandemic risks, and geopolitical conflicts contribute to the investments in gold. BofA analysts expect the average gold price to be at $1,925/oz throughout the year.   

Wallet Investor

According to Wallet Investor, the closing price for 2022 will be $2,065.25. The prognosis for the coming months of the year is positive, and no strong declines are expected.

Long Forecast

The Economy Forecast Agency is even more optimistic. They expect the 2022 Gold closing price at $2,391 with the highest price to be set in September at $2,536.

Gold price predictions for 2022 from different experts vary and depend on how the market will respond to inflation, the central bank’s policy, and geopolitical tensions. 

High volatility has been influencing the stock markets since the very beginning of 2022. At the same time, gold’s price growth has been quite steady, and the uptrend is continuing. Inflation is the core factor that will impact the price of gold in the near future. It is at the highest rate in the US in the last forty years. Gold’s status as a top hedging instrument against diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies is likely to push the prices further, reaching more than $2,000 per ounce. 

The factors that will influence the price of gold in 2022 and may lead to its increase above $2,000 per ounce include:

  • Potential increase in inflationary expectations and concerns on diluting purchasing power of fiat currencies.
  • A potential increase in investment demand and a gradual recovery in consumer demand in China and India may support the precious metal rate at a high level.
  • Government bonds (government debt) may not play the role of defensive assets in the face of inflation and negative interest rates since they will cease to generate income.
  • Tense geopolitical situations may lead to gold becoming a hedging instrument on a larger scale. 

At the same time, the opportunity cost of owning gold may decrease. This may increase the popularity of the precious metal in the eyes of investors in 2022.

All Western countries are facing the end of unprecedented growth in the money supply. From the beginning of February to the end of October 2021, the aggregate volume of money supply in the United States increased from $15.4 billion to $18.8 billion, an increase of 22%. In the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan, the figure rose 15.7% from February to September.

On the other hand, volatile risk-on assets may have a negative impact on gold’s price. In this scenario, the bears will take the rates to the low levels of September 2021. 

Gold Price Forecast 2023

Analysts expect that production will expand through 2023, given that prices are well above production costs. Uncertainty over the end of the economic recession and higher rates of inflation may push gold prices higher.

Wallet Investor

The opening price on January 1 is believed to be $2,070.95. The price will go up all the way till December. In July, the opening price will reach $2,184.40, and this position will be held further. The closing price of the last day in December will be $2,260.67.

Long Forecast

January 2023 will begin with the opening price of $2,391. Until the end of the year, gold will face a gradual downtrend. At the end of June, the closing price is thought to be $2,306. After that, there will be no sharp ups or downs - the closing price in December is predicted to be $2,305.

Coin Price Forecast

2023 will meet us with $2,148, according to the Coin Price Forecast. By the middle of 2023, the price will be $2,167, and the growth will maintain till the end of the year when the closing price will be $2,233.

Gold Price Forecast 2024

Overall, the price of gold in 2024 will go up, and no significant falls are expected. However, investors should keep in mind that this growth will be at a slow pace. There is good news for long-term investors - the volatility in 2024 is said to be low. Let's dive into the details.

Wallet Investor

The opening price in January will be $2,266. The whole year will show stable growth. At the end of June, the average price will be $2,379. The last day of 2023 will leave us with $2,462.

Long Forecast

The opening price in 2024 will be $2,305. No sharp falls are expected. By the beginning of July, the opening price will be $2,701. A downtrend will start after that, and it will continue till the end of October. Then, the situation will change, and the end of the year will see the closing price of $3,026 in December.

Coin Price Forecast

$2,233 will be the price at the beginning of 2024. By the middle of the year, it will manage to go up to $2,346. The growth will continue to make all investors happy, and on the 31st of December will congratulate the world with a closing price of $2,622.

Gold Price Forecast 2025-2030

Though it is hard to say for sure for such a long period of time, experts from different resources concur that gold will continue rising. However, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth.

Wallet Investor

The opening price in 2025 will be $2,464.95. The closing price in June 2025 will be $2,578.46, and it will continue going up - at the end of December, the closing price will be $2,660.12. The first half of 2026 is also nice and pleasant for gold investors. The beginning of January will bring $2,661.61. The end of June will meet us with $2,775.48. The following periods will also demonstrate the uptrend, and the year will close with $2,841.93. Moderate growth will continue in January 2027, and the price will reach $2,843.28. The final period of the forecast is March 2027; the price will reach $2,915,24.

Long Forecast

The Economy Forecast Agency gives information only till the end of April 2026. The beginning of 2025 will continue the uptrend. The opening price in January will be $3,026. A small decline will happen in April and May as the price drops to $2,999. Then, the price will grow till the beginning of September, when it becomes $3,328. It won’t be able to hold that mark for a long time and will have fallen to $2,980 by the end of the year. However, it will go up again and will rise up to $3,106 by the end of April 2026.

Coin Price Forecast

2025 will start with a price of $2,622, and the uptrend will continue: mid-year will give us $3,822. Then, the price will lose almost $1,000. But the recovery will be fast enough, and the figures will go up till the middle of 2028; at that point, the price will reach $3,799. The growth will continue at a faster pace since then. By the end of 2030, the price will be $4,503.

*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

It is essential to do your research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

How Has the Price of Gold Changed Over Time?

Below is a Gold chart that shows how the price of gold changed over the past ten years. In order to make our predictions and forecasts as accurate as possible, it’s important to look back at such historical data.  

Gold price history
Source: CAPEX WebTrader

One of the biggest drivers of gold is currency values. Because gold is denominated in dollars, USD can have a significant impact on the price of gold. A weaker dollar makes gold relatively less expensive for foreign buyers and may lift prices. On the other hand, a stronger dollar makes gold relatively more expensive for foreign buyers, thus possibly lowering prices.

The price at the beginning of 2019 was $1,413.75. Though it fell insignificantly in April to $1,353.26, it continued going up till August and became $1,601.35. However, in November, the price lowered to $1,524.80. The reason for this was the falling gold demand in India. Actually, it fell to its lowest level in three years. The World Gold Council (WGC) explained that this was due to  domestic prices climbing to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas.

The price was able to recover and rose up to $2,063.56 in August 2020. This peak hasn’t been reached again yet. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020. 

The price didn’t manage to maintain this high and fell to $1,840.38 in November 2020. Pfizer was the main reason. The US-based pharmaceutical corporation announced the Covid-19 vaccine news. They made a surprising announcement regarding the status of their coronavirus vaccine trial.

The price managed to recover a little bit, but that didn’t save it from another fall in March 2021 - it fell to $1,742.68 as the dollar strengthened after the jump in US private-sector jobs. “Gold looked as if it was topping out,” Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. “Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here.” He was right - in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Little did he know that the price would again go down, reaching $1,771.60 because of problems with the coronavirus in India.

There were no sharp ups or downs during summer. The first month of Fall 2021 ended with a price decline to $1,726.11 per ounce. The next seven weeks showed a strong recovery – up to $1,866.96. This happened due to the investor's rush into safe-haven assets. A stronger dollar and the Fed policy led to the following sharp decline. However, the situation changed in December when the bulls took the trend. Such factors as the pandemic, continuing inflation, and the geopolitical crisis pushed the price to its current $1,930+ per ounce.

Conclusion: Is Gold a Good Investment?

Not only is gold known for being a portfolio diversifier, but with inflation fears on the rise, investors tend to buy gold due to concerns about inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies.

"During periods of systemic risk, both gold and the dollar tend to be used as safe havens and may move in a similar direction," says Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Research, World Gold Council.

They WGC maintain a long-term positive view on gold  in 2022-2030.

Year

Mid-Year

Year-End

2022

$2,118

$2,148

2023

$2,167

$2,233

2024

$2,346

$2,622

2025

$3,822

$2,933

2026

$3,122

$3,262

2027

$3,529

$3,794

2028

$3,799

$4,043

2029

$4,081

$4,234

2030

$4,458

$4,503

As new initiatives of the world's central banks and governments to support markets and economies were successfully implemented in 2021, the gold price may have shown a decline. However, new waves of coronavirus, skyrocketing inflation, political tensions, and conflict destabilize the situation, so we have a reason to expect experts’ forecasts to come true - meaning gold price may rise up to $2,100 per troy ounce in 2022.

Make sure to create a free demo account on CAPEX.com! You will be up to date on interesting updates about Gold as an investment asset, and the user-friendly interface will come in handy if you decide to start trading Gold or any other asset. 

Gold Price Forecast FAQ

When will the gold price rise?

The gold price moves in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, as it gains value in times of volatility in the financial markets and global turbulence. Many analytical agencies see gold prices to be at the beginning of a long uptrend.

The global situation is expected to become even tenser, and it could be another potential tailwind for gold — which is considered a safe investment asset in times of uncertainty.

Will gold prices fall?

Since the start of 2022, gold has gained about 5.2%, nearly reaching the highs of July 2020. The main factors behind it are the investors’ rush to the safe haven and their desire to hedge risks. And this trend is likely to continue in the coming years, according to experts.

How low will gold go?

At the moment of writing, experts have a positive outlook on the price of gold for the near future and do not expect the precious metal to go low.

What will gold be worth in 5 years?

At the beginning of January 2027, WGC predicts a price of more than $3,500. The maximum price forecast for 2027 is $3,794, and the minimum price forecast is $3,529.

What will gold be worth in 10 years?

Long-term price forecasts for any investment asset are very approximate and may change due to various factors. Analysts cannot make a reliable gold price forecast for 10 years in the future. However, at the end of 2030, the price may be $4,503.

Why is the gold price in UAE going up?

Pandemic, increasing global tensions, and overall economic slowdowns have led to a constant rise in the gold rate in UAE and around the world.

This information/research prepared by Miguel A. Rodriguez does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views and consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The research provided does not constitute the views of KW Investments Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with KW Investments Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

The research analyst is not employed by KW Investments Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest.

The laws of the Republic of Seychelles shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.