Notifications Bell

Busy day for global equities, as markets try to return to normal – Market Overview

Busy day for global equities, as markets try to return to normal – Market Overview

The U.S and European long-term bond yields continue on an apparent unstoppable upward path.

Expectations of a rapid economic recovery grow in the market, but with the fear of an inflationary process, we are far from confirming this fact.

Central banks will not take long to start worrying about the rise in interest rates in the curve's longest references. In fact, through its president Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank has already stated that it will be vigilant to avoid it by taking the necessary measures.

However, the Federal Reserve does not show any concern in this regard and rules out any possibility of an inflationary threat for now.

The consequences of these long-term rate hikes in the markets are, for the moment, minor, with only a slowdown noted in the upward movement of the stock markets, although in some cases, such as the USA30, it reached a new all-time high yesterday.

The return to normal due to the massive administration of vaccines and the imminent approval of the fiscal stimulus package that could boost consumption are the causes that support the movement of the USA30, which are mainly composed of cyclical stocks ​​more sensitive to economic growth.

However, the other indices, such as the USA500, have lagged somewhat, and although they also recovered yesterday, they have not managed to overcome previous highs.

Technically, this index broke down a reversal pattern on February 23 of this month and punctually reached its theoretical target at the levels of 3806, but immediately recovered all the lost territory.

In any case, everything seems to indicate that stock indices are losing steam, mainly due to the uncertainty created by the rebound in long-term interest rates.

As proof of this, the VIX index that reflects the volatility expectations of the S& P500 remains at levels above the historical average, although the underlying index is at the highest levels and although it has lost momentum, it has not yet experienced no substantial drop.

This signifies that investors are more uncertain about the upcoming evolution of the stock markets and are beginning to use the VIX index as a hedge against possible falls.

In this sense, there is no unanimity of criteria in the market. This is reflected in a report published yesterday by the investment bank JP Morgan which, despite these facts, considers investors' concern to be excessive, and anticipates new rises in the stock markets and rates the current levels of the VIX index as a bubble.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters.

This information/research prepared by Miguel A. Rodriguez does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views and consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The research provided does not constitute the views of KW Investments Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with KW Investments Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

The research analyst is not employed by KW Investments Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest.

The laws of the Republic of Seychelles shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.