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Higher-than-expected GDP contraction for Japan

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
14 September 2020
Annualized contraction figures were higher than the preliminary readings

Even though the economies are resuming their activity, the latest reports keep on showing the negative impact the #pandemic had.

The Japanese Cabinet Office report read that the country’s GDP contracted slightly more than estimated. For the quarter that ended in June, official data showed a 7.9% contraction. The Cabinet was looking for 7.8%. However, the numbers came below the market consensus of 8%. 

These figures mark the deepest contraction that the third-largest economy in the world reported in modern history. The shrinkage would have been far worse if the central bank hadn’t eased its policy twice this year and didn’t conceive the $2 trillion #stimulus package. 

The downward revision was caused by a 4.7% drop in capital expenditure, higher than the 1.5% estimated, which suggested that the pandemic hit multiple sectors of the economy. 

On an annualized basis, the economy shrank 28.1%. The figures came in higher than the preliminary reading of 27.8%. 

Economists are cautious when talking about a recovery. They suggest that it will be modest, given that household spending fell by more than 7.6% and the wages declined for the fifth consecutive month. They forecast a 5.6% economic contraction for the current fiscal year, with a 3.3% recovery next year.  

The country’s benchmark, Japan225 closed the Asian trading session 0.8% higher. The USD/JPY pair is #trading at 106.35.

Sources: forexfactory.com, asiatimes.com, reuters.com


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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
financial_writer

Miguel worked for major financial institutions such as Banco Santander, and Banco Central-Hispano. He is a published author of currency trading books.